This week: A stream of new vaccines, deaths over the 20th century, how flu became milder, how children reduce crime, how to reduce stomach cancer, and happy capybaras.
The graph on the cohort effect of the Spanish flu is fascinating!
"You can see, for example, a clear red diagonal line from around 1918. This line shows that people born during the Spanish flu pandemic had much higher risks of death across their whole lifetimes than people born just before or after it."
Do we know if the effect is due to, e.g., babies being born to mothers who had the flu, or babies having the flu in their first year, or just the general unhealthy environment in their first year? I guess I am surprised to see an effect that is so much stronger for those born in 1918 compared to those born in 1917?
I'm not sure – that's a good question, though they don't explore it in the paper. They find the same effect across many countries, but I think those are both reasonable guesses. Another possibility is that the pandemic led to less available space in hospitals and less antenatal/neonatal care, which led to worse early outcomes that carried forward for babies who survived. I would guess each of those factors had an effect and that it's probably not one or the other.
Thank you for the quick reply. Reconsidering my own suggestion, if the effect is due to babies having the flu in the first year, the difference between having it when the baby is 6 months vs. 8 months old, should be that noticeable. So, it sounds more plausible that it has to do with the very end of the pregnancy, or the birth (and the period following it). This is also in line, as I recall, with how Cov-19 impacts the pregnant woman/unborn child, as far as I can tell. In any case, very worrying graph, especially considering that Covid19 seems to have a worse impact on the health of the infected more generally - and Covid19 might still indirectly cause many further deaths.
Btw., more generally, only just stumbled upon this substack. Love it!
Oct 28, 2022·edited Oct 28, 2022Liked by Saloni Dattani
Very nice collection of articles; each one covers an interest of mine! Will use your post in a post of my own, if you don't mind. Of course, attributing you properly :-)
The info on vaccines is so useful, particularly in the US where the anti-vax movement has gained very strong backing these days. Nuanced commenters like Dr Vinay Prasad seem to forget the short attention span of even scientifically literate peeps and IMO are inadvertently contributing to the anti-vax sentiment in the US. Would like to hear your take on this?
Very puzzling that the cohort effect visualization didn't include 2020, 2021. Would have appreciated seeing 'our' pandemic in perspective.
Lastly, wanted to point out that Illumina is finally getting some competition in NGS besides PacBio and Oxoford Nanopore
My particular interest is why they think that the best marker for schizophrenia is genetic; I have the impression that there are some good markers using EEG. I will post about it at some point.
Please feel free to delete this. I was just very impressed by your post.
The graph on the cohort effect of the Spanish flu is fascinating!
"You can see, for example, a clear red diagonal line from around 1918. This line shows that people born during the Spanish flu pandemic had much higher risks of death across their whole lifetimes than people born just before or after it."
Do we know if the effect is due to, e.g., babies being born to mothers who had the flu, or babies having the flu in their first year, or just the general unhealthy environment in their first year? I guess I am surprised to see an effect that is so much stronger for those born in 1918 compared to those born in 1917?
I'm not sure – that's a good question, though they don't explore it in the paper. They find the same effect across many countries, but I think those are both reasonable guesses. Another possibility is that the pandemic led to less available space in hospitals and less antenatal/neonatal care, which led to worse early outcomes that carried forward for babies who survived. I would guess each of those factors had an effect and that it's probably not one or the other.
Thank you for the quick reply. Reconsidering my own suggestion, if the effect is due to babies having the flu in the first year, the difference between having it when the baby is 6 months vs. 8 months old, should be that noticeable. So, it sounds more plausible that it has to do with the very end of the pregnancy, or the birth (and the period following it). This is also in line, as I recall, with how Cov-19 impacts the pregnant woman/unborn child, as far as I can tell. In any case, very worrying graph, especially considering that Covid19 seems to have a worse impact on the health of the infected more generally - and Covid19 might still indirectly cause many further deaths.
Btw., more generally, only just stumbled upon this substack. Love it!
epic
Very nice collection of articles; each one covers an interest of mine! Will use your post in a post of my own, if you don't mind. Of course, attributing you properly :-)
The info on vaccines is so useful, particularly in the US where the anti-vax movement has gained very strong backing these days. Nuanced commenters like Dr Vinay Prasad seem to forget the short attention span of even scientifically literate peeps and IMO are inadvertently contributing to the anti-vax sentiment in the US. Would like to hear your take on this?
Very puzzling that the cohort effect visualization didn't include 2020, 2021. Would have appreciated seeing 'our' pandemic in perspective.
Lastly, wanted to point out that Illumina is finally getting some competition in NGS besides PacBio and Oxoford Nanopore
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/29/competition-dna-sequencing-illumina?utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
My particular interest is why they think that the best marker for schizophrenia is genetic; I have the impression that there are some good markers using EEG. I will post about it at some point.
Please feel free to delete this. I was just very impressed by your post.
Thanks for sharing , cheers.
This is the best science newsletter. I'm excited I found your Substack! Thanks for publishing and sharing the knowledge.
Thank you for saying that! I'm glad you like it and really appreciate it. :)